Proxy war is a powerful tool for states to pursue their interests in a global arena. However, it is not without its risks and challenges, and strategists need to better understand how to execute proxy warfare under varying conditions.

A proxy war is a conflict in which a state supports or controls a smaller group to fight against another larger group. The larger group, often referred to as the target, can be a country, organization or army. The proxies usually serve the interests of the intervening state, but they may also be aligned with their own, independent agendas and ambitions. This is due to the power asymmetry in the conflict. The stronger a proxy is, the more it can exert autonomy and apply resources toward its own agenda.

This leads to the three maxims of proxy warfare: “Let the proxy lead, but only so far”; “hold action”; and “meddle and feed the chaos.” Each is a distinct strategy and serves a specific purpose when a state perceives that pursuing vital interests through direct intervention would be too risky or costly, or if a peer or near-peer competitor would be likely to respond aggressively.

The best proxy wars occur near a safe, adjacent sanctuary territory that allows the proxies to regenerate and rearm without being exposed to attack. Examples of such sanctuaries include China for North Korean troops during the Korean War; Pakistan for Soviet and US forces in Afghanistan; Syria for the United States in the Iraq War; and Poland for Russian forces in the Ukraine conflict.