The intersection of energy, sustainability and geopolitics reveals a complex interplay with significant implications for global stability and the planet’s ecological health. Understanding the fundamental aspects of this dynamic is critical for navigating the challenges and opportunities in 2025 and beyond.

A wide range of factors contribute to geopolitical tensions, ranging from competition for dwindling resources and conflicts over climate change policies, to rising demands for food security and access to essential minerals, to disagreements about the value of international institutions. The result is a global landscape that can create uncertainty for business operations and reshape supply chains.

Moreover, the economic impact of escalating geopolitical risks can be especially pronounced for border and neighbour countries. For example, if a conflict between the US and China resulted in increased trade restrictions, it could affect global supply chains and lead to higher prices for inputs like steel, aluminum, and oil. This may also reshape production locations and sourcing strategies, with companies facing the possibility of decoupling from China as a result (Bremmer and Kupchan, 2022).

At the intermediate level, academic analysis of geopolitical tensions focuses on the interplay of power dynamics and shifting power relations. This approach goes beyond simple analysis of immediate crises and conflicts, and requires a deeper engagement with the power structures and historical legacies that shape current tensions, while also challenging simplistic explanations and policy prescriptions. It also calls for a greater emphasis on the role of global governance and the need to move beyond the limits of national interests.