Regime change is the forcible overthrow of a government in order to implement a different policy. It can be accomplished in several ways, including invasions (e.g., the Iraq War), foreign assistance to opposition groups, and covert actions such as mercenaries. Regardless of the means used to bring about regime change, it is typically accomplished by external actors, and thus is often considered a form of warfare.

Advocates of regime change promote this tool as a way to achieve political goals more cheaply and quickly than other tools, such as sanctions or engagement. However, academic research shows that armed regime-change missions rarely succeed as intended. Rather, they tend to produce unintended consequences, such as humanitarian crises and weaker domestic security within the target country.

Using military force to supplant odious regimes has been a common practice in the United States since Woodrow Wilson’s calls to “teach them to elect good men.” The failures of the Mexican Revolution, the Argentine junta, and American operations in Grenada, Haiti, Panama, and the post-World War II occupations of Germany and Japan have not diminished interest in regime change.

Yet, a more prudent strategy would be to focus on promoting democracy and advancing America’s national interests through other tools that are more successful at the task than covert action. Instead, pursuing more regime-change activities would only encourage the perception by Chinese officials that the United States is seeking to constrain them at all costs.