The global economic outlook is gloomy but it feels different depending on where you live. The World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Outlook survey found that nearly 20% of respondents now see an extremely likely chance of a global recession—more than double the previous quarter. The global economy is slowing down as trade tensions and uncertainty erode business investment and consumer confidence.

In general, recessions are associated with a decline in GDP growth, declining stock markets and falling industrial production. They also are accompanied by rising unemployment and higher interest rates. In addition, a recession in one country may quickly be felt by its regional trading partners. This phenomenon is often referred to as “globally synchronized” recessions.

What are the earliest signs of a global recession? While some definitions of recession set a minimum time period for decline in GDP, the IMF has more stringent criteria that includes deterioration in multiple economic indicators such as exports and imports, manufacturing activity, employment, oil consumption, per-capita income and investment, and household spending.

For example, a global recession can be caused by a number of things, including an energy crisis (resulting in declining international oil prices), an asymmetrical financial shock (like the OPEC embargo on 1973 that led to rising oil and gas prices and stagflation), or an over-expansion of credit (leading to loan defaults and higher interest rates).

A global recession can also be triggered by the loss of market access for exporting countries. Lastly, economic recessions can be accelerated by the impact of rising inflation on the economies’ purchasing power.